Policy risks and fiscal pressures: Economic fragilities in a year of global transition

Letter from the Editors

U.S. Outlook

The outlook for the U.S. economy in the light of the change of administration

Until the end of last year the U.S. economy was performing better than most other advanced economies, and the prospects were for robust economic growth, ...

Trade wars

The Spanish economy in the face of the trade war

The escalation of U.S. tariffs is weighing on the global economy, with Spain facing limited direct exposure but significant indirect risks. As protectionism ...

Debt markets

Tensions in the U.S. and eurozone sovereign debt markets

Transatlantic divergence in fiscal and monetary policies is driving renewed volatility in sovereign bond markets, with U.S. Treasury yields elevated and ...

Bank exposure

Spanish versus European bank exposure to sovereign risk

Spanish banks’ exposure to public debt has increased more sharply than the EU average, reaching 15.4% of total assets in 2024. Amortised cost accounting ...

Fiscal policy

Spanish fiscal policy in the face of systematic budget rollover: Risks for stability and reform

Despite robust growth and a declining headline deficit in 2024, Spain’s underlying fiscal trajectory remains fragile due to persistent structural ...

Tax burden

Spain’s rising tax burden: Personal income tax under scrutiny

Spain’s tax revenue rose sharply in 2024, led by strong growth in personal income tax, VAT, and corporate income tax. While this helped reduce the public ...

Bank valuations

Improving valuations for Spanish and European banks

After years of trading below book value despite solid fundamentals, Spanish and European banks have seen a marked revaluation since late 2024, surpassing price ...

Defence M&A

Mergers and acquisitions in defence: A paradigm shift for Europe

The defence sector in Europe is experiencing renewed momentum in investment and consolidation, driven by structural challenges, strategic imperatives, and ...

Regulation and Economic Outlook
Recent key developments in the area of Spanish financial regulation
Prepared by the Regulation and Research Department of the Spanish Confederation of Savings Banks (CECA)
Spanish economic forecasts panel: May 2025
Key Facts
Economic Indicators
Financial Indicators
Social Indicators