Europe between geopolitical shocks and economic weaknesses

Letter from the Editors

Tariff War

Trump’s tariff war: Limited impact, diverging effects across partners

Despite headline-grabbing tariff announcements, the average burden on most U.S. trading partners remains moderate. While China has been hit hard, the EU and ...

Autocracy risk

Europe’s systemic challenge or why underestimating Russia and the axis of autocracies is a mistake

Europe’s assumptions about Russia’s weakness and the limits of autocracies have been upended by Moscow’s resilience in war and economic ...

EU Risk

What it would take to reverse Europe’s global decline

Europe’s lacklustre economic growth reflects deep-seated structural weaknesses, from fragmented financial markets to chronic underinvestment and low ...

Spanish economy

The Spanish economy and the rise of trade blocs

The global economy is increasingly shaped by geopolitical blocs, reflecting the weakening of multilateralism. Spain has been resilient to this disruption ...

Nextgen EU

NextGen EU funds: A transformation that has yet to arrive

Spain has led the EU in securing and allocating recovery funds, but actual disbursement and material execution remain slow. Heavy reliance on current ...

Stress tests

Paradoxical stress test results: Banking resilience amid rising uncertainty

The 2025 stress tests by the Fed and EBA revealed stronger-than-expected resilience, despite harsher adverse scenarios. Improved profitability and net interest ...

Corporate deleveraging

Spain’s corporate sector: Strong deleveraging, persistent divergence

Spanish corporations have undergone a sharp deleveraging in the last decade, leaving aggregate indebtedness below the EU and eurozone averages. However, behind ...

Dollar-baked stablecoins

Dollar-backed stablecoins: Not a threat in the EU

Despite rapid growth in terms of capitalization and rising cross-border flows, dollar-backed stablecoins face significant barriers in the Euro Area. Exchange ...

Long-term care

Spain’s long-term care system at a crossroads: Demographic pressures and workforce challenges

Spain’s long-term care system faces a dual transformation – rapid population ageing and a shift toward personalized, deinstitutionalized care. ...

Regulation and Economic Outlook
Recent key developments in the area of Spanish financial regulation
Prepared by the Regulation and Research Department of the Spanish Confederation of Savings Banks (CECA)
Spanish economic forecasts panel: September 2025
Key Facts
Economic Indicators
Financial Indicators
Social Indicators